Tags : 上海桑拿

Warren Buffett has a great investment track record. So perhaps it’s no accident that he declined to offer $1 billion for correctly predicting the outcome of all World Cup knockout stage games, as he did for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament games.The odds of winning Buffett’s NCAA challenge were about one in 7.4 billion, assuming you chose the favorite in each game as selected by FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA model. But the odds of correctly filling out a 16-team knockout tournament such as the World Cup are much shorter.In fact, though there have been some thrilling matches in the knockout stage so far — six of 12 have gone to extra time and only two were decided by more than one goal — the favorite has advanced every time (at least as according to the FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup predictions).Here is the breakdown so far. The following table lists the win probability for the FiveThirtyEight favorite as of the day of the match, along with the cumulative probability of the model having called all knockout stages correctly up to that point in time.For instance, the probability of correctly identifying the winners in each of the first four knockout matches — Brazil over Chile, Colombia over Uruguay, the Netherlands over Mexico and Costa Rica over Greece — was about 23 percent, or one chance in 4.3. And the chance of going 12 for 12, as the FiveThirtyEight favorites have done so far, is just one in 75.It’s an upset, in other words, when all the favorites prevail. On average, we’d have expected three or four upsets through this point in the knockout round.Of course, there are four matches left — counting the World Cup’s third-place playoff between the two semifinal losers. According to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, Brazil is favored over Germany on Tuesday (even after accounting for Neymar’s injury) and Argentina is slightly favored over the Netherlands on Wednesday. To complete a perfect knockout bracket, Germany would then need to beat the Netherlands in the consolation game while Brazil prevailed over Argentina in the final.All of the remaining matches look pretty close, so the FiveThirtyEight forecasts are likely to fail at some stage. If the model gets the matches right, however, it will have made good on a 1-in-553 chance of calling all 16 knockout stage winners correctly.Incidentally, this isn’t the huge success for the FiveThirtyEight model that it might seem. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts are probabilistic. Teams listed as 75 percent favorites are supposed to win about 75 percent of the time over the long run — not much less than that but also not any more often. There are supposed to be some upsets. If 75 percent favorites are winning 100 percent of the time over the long run instead, that means the forecasts are miscalibrated and overestimating the chances for the underdogs.In this case, the success of the favorites does seem to be mostly a matter of luck. Three games have gone to a penalty shootout so far — pre-match favorites might have a slight edge in those but not much of one. Mexico, meanwhile, was a few minutes away from defeating the Netherlands, and the U.S. was a few inches away from beating Belgium.The best way to test probabilistic forecasts is to check their calibration and to compare them against alternative probabilistic estimates. For example, if your model says that the U.S. has a 40 percent chance of beating Belgium and the consensus betting line gives the U.S. just a 25 percent chance instead, you should bet on the Americans — even though you expect Belgium to win most of the time. So far, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts have done well against consensus betting lines when used in this fashion — although that could reflect good luck, too. read more

Despite recent struggles on the PGA Tour, Tiger Woods’ play on the par-5 holes at the 2012 Memorial Tournament has him in contention after one round. Woods carded a 2-under-par 70 during the first round of the 2012 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. Woods walked off the 18th green one stroke off the lead, though he has sense fallen into a tie for 11th place as American Scott Stallings jumped to the top of the leader board after posting a 6-under-par 66 first round score. The 2-under-par score comes after what some consider underachievement in the three tournaments leading up to the Memorial Tournament. After finishing tied for 40th (-5-strokes) at The Masters, missing the cut for the Wells Fargo Championship and tying for 40th (-1) at The Players Championship, Woods said he feels like he’s “perking up” after one round of play in Dublin. “Well, I think I was just consistent all day,” Woods said. “I didn’t do … anything great and I didn’t do anything poorly. I was just very consistent. And I think with the way the golf course being the way it’s set up, you just have to be that way.” In order to finish his round 2-under-par, Woods took advantage of nearly every opportunity he had on Muirfield’s four par-5 holes, birdying three times while also posting a par. After paring holes 1-4, Woods tracked into negative territory when he birdied the 527-yard fifth hole. Two holes later, he birdied the 563-yard seventh. Woods saved par on the 11th, but said he wasn’t satisfied with that result. “The one on 11 should have been a birdie, as well,” Woods said. “I hit two really nice shots in there.” Woods bounced back and went to 4-under-par for the round when he birdied the 15th hole. The lone blemish on Woods’ round was a double-bogey on 18. After Woods finished his round, he said his play on the par-5 holes was productive for a change. “Well, I haven’t played the par-5’s particularly well the last few tournaments, and today was a good example (of how well I’m playing),” Woods said. “I played (the par-5’s) great. I feel very pleased with the way I hit the golf ball all day, and it was nice to actually play the par-5’s under par for a change.” Second-round play at the Memorial Tournament begins Friday at 7:20 a.m. read more

first_imgRoma sporting director Ramon Monchi has pleaded with the club fans to exercise patience as they work on rediscovering their form.The Spaniard has been under scrutiny for his poor transfer business over the summer, with the exit of Alisson, Kevin Strootman and Radja Nainggolan all slowing down the club’s progress.However, Nainggolan’s sale did bring Zaniolo in exchange, and the youngster has been one of the bright lights so far.“I think the fans will eventually begin to understand what my idea is,” Monchi assured in an interview with Football Italia, which will be broadcast in full on New Year’s Day.Chris Smalling open to a permanent AS Roma deal Andrew Smyth – September 6, 2019 Chris Smalling can “definitely see a longer-term future” for himself at AS Roma should things work out on his loan spell from Manchester United.“I know that there’s no time in football, but I know the way we work and I hope we’ll be right.“As for Zaniolo, when we were negotiating we had two requests: him and [Andrei] Radu. Radu had already gone to Genoa though.“Inter didn’t want to sell Zaniolo, they’re not stupid, but given that they wanted to take Radja it was only logical they’d have to give something up.“The deal wouldn’t have collapsed without Zaniolo, it wasn’t an either/or situation. I have to say, I didn’t think Zaniolo would be so decisive right away.”last_img read more

first_imgIn October 2016, the Professional Teaching Practices Commission proposed twelve changes to the Code of Ethics of the Education Profession. Facebook0TwitterEmailPrintFriendly分享The Alaska Professional Teaching Practices Commision has added flirting, sexting, and inappropriate touching to the list of things that teachers are not allowed to do with students. The first changed went into effect back in September, including broadening what constitutes ‘sexual misconduct’ and expanding anti-discrimination policy to protect a student’s gender identity. Additional changes are still under review according to the Commision, including a proposal that would not allow for a teacher to get romantically involved with a student for one year after their graduation. Jim Seitz, executive director of the Professional Teaching Practices Commission, says “the state’s code of ethics had not been updated since 2005.” Story as aired: Audio PlayerJennifer-on-school-code-of-ethics-changed.mp3VmJennifer-on-school-code-of-ethics-changed.mp300:00RPd The Commission made further revisions during their January 2017 meeting and then voted to accept all twelve proposals. The next commission meeting is set for January 29-31, 2018. The Professional Teaching Practices Commission is composed of five teachers, one superintendent, one principal, one representative of the Department of Education & Early Development, and one representative of higher education.last_img read more

first_img 2020 BMW M340i review: A dash of M makes everything better 0 2020 Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class is the pinnacle of tech… Post a comment 74 Photos Share your voice Preview • 2020 Mercedes-Benz GLC-Class first drive: If it ain’t broke… 2020 Hyundai Palisade review: Posh enough to make Genesis jealous Now playing: Watch this: 1:51 Enlarge ImageBased on all the new stuff in here, a five-grand bump almost seems low. Mercedes-Benz When an automaker introduces a new generation of vehicle, it’s usually loaded with the latest and greatest features, which can cause the price to rise anywhere between a little and a lot. In the case of the 2020 Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class, the price hike is on the higher side, but what you get in return makes it feel worth it.The 2020 Mercedes-Benz GLS450 will start at $76,195, including $995 for destination and handling, the automaker announced on Monday. That’s a decent bump over the outgoing 2019 model, which started at $71,145. That might seem like a big shift, but one look at what you’re getting will put those concerns to rest.Whereas the 2019 GLS450 used a twin-turbocharged V6, the new GLS450 relies on a 3.0-liter inline-6 in conjunction with Mercedes’ EQ Boost 48-volt mild hybrid technology, which can add up to 21 horsepower and 184 pound-feet of torque as one’s right foot demands it. Additional features not found on the last-generation GLS include keyless entry, LED headlights, a power passenger seat, 64-color ambient lighting, satellite radio, wireless device charging and 9 USB ports.The tech takes the new GLS even further away from its forebear. The tired old 7-inch infotainment screen is swapped out in favor of a 12.3-inch display running the new MBUX system, in addition to a 12.3-inch digital instrument cluster. There are also so many more safety systems on board, like blind spot monitoring, a parking assistant, a surround-view camera and a warning that aims to prevent people from opening doors into cars or bicyclists. Apple CarPlay and Android Auto are standard for the first time, as well.Of course, this is just one piece of the GLS puzzle. As for the more powerful GLS580, we’ll have to wait a little longer before pricing information is available. The GLS450, though, should be with US dealers by the end of the calendar year. Mercedes-Benz More From Roadshow Tags SUVs Luxury cars 2020 Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class brings big luxe to the Big Apple 2020 Kia Telluride review: Kia’s new SUV has big style and bigger value More about 2020 Mercedes-Benz GLC 300 SUV Mercedes-Benzlast_img read more

first_imgJustin Bieber and Hailey BaldwinGetty ImagesJustin Bieber and Hailey Baldwin were recently spotted in a park where they both seemed to be engulfed into some heated discussion. There were reports that Justin is apparently facing some depression in his life and now the acclaimed model has been urged by Wendy Williams to just get over Justin Bieber and simply divorce him.It was earlier reported that just like Selena Gomez, Justin Bieber is also receiving treatment for depression. Several sources claimed that the Canadian pop singer seems down and tired all the time. He is also claimed to be struggling. Even the “Never Say Never” singer posted on Instagram that he is not having the best days and asked his fans to pray for him.Apparently, this is not the very first time when Justin Bieber has faced depression ever since he got involved with Hailey Baldwin. Back when the reports surfaced that Selena Gomez had an emotional breakdown, there were several stories that alleged that Justin was spotted crying as he walked out of his church.Over the last couple of months, Hailey Baldwin has supported Justin Bieber in everything but as per Wendy Williams, things will get worse when the “Sorry” singer will become a father. As per Williams, Hailey Baldwin should divorce Justin for the sake of love to help him focus on his own health. Justin Bieber and Hailey BaldwinInstagram”Hailey Baldwin is only 22, she’s supposed to be a newlywed,” said Wendy. “I think I’d want to divorce him in the name of love. In the name of love and friendship. I’m 22, I met you when I was 17. Now, he’s with these public cries and what if they want to have kids? Is he going to be an adequate father? What kind of father and husband is he going to be?”Wendy Williams then suggested that all this drama is apparently too much for a 22-year-old model. The acclaimed talk show further stated that ‘in the name of love,’ Justin Bieber and Hailey Baldwin “can quickly get divorce.”In any case, Justin Bieber and Hailey Baldwin love each other a lot. There have been some hurdles at the start of their married life but it does not mean that they should part ways. Some suggest that in days to come, the acclaimed pop star will come out as stronger than ever and his beautiful wife will be standing right next to him.You can watch Wendy Williams’ entire episode here where she talks about Justin Bieber and Hailey Baldwin’s divorce:last_img read more