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first_img View post tag: Philippine Coast Guard Photo: Photo: Philippine Coast Guard View post tag: South Korea Coast Guard View post tag: Super Typhoon Mangkhutcenter_img The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is bracing for Super Typhoon Mangkhut which is expected to reach the country by the middle of this week.The coast guard has alerted its districts and stations in Northern and Central Luzon to brace for the possible effects of the tropical storm, forecasted to develop into a super typhoon once it enters the Philippine waters on September 12.Mangkhut is reportedly reaching super typhoon level of more than 220 kilometers per hour.PCG Commandant Admiral Elson Hermogino directed all PCG district commanders in areas expected to be hit by the super typhoon to ensure the readiness of all assets and personnel to respond during emergency situations and to coordinate possible rescue and related activities.Separately, PCG informed that it welcomed the Korea Coast Guard (KCG) training vessel Badaro at South Harbor, Port Area in Manila. The vessel and her crew officially visited the country for the first time on September 10.During the visit, the two coast guards will be involved in an academic subject-matter expert exchange with regards to the best practices in providing medical support for emergencies needed on ships using air assets. Share this articlelast_img read more

first_img SHARE Email Facebook Twitter Statement Harrisburg, PA – Governor Wolf released the following statement on the failure of the Senate to act on HB 2375:“The Senate’s inaction on HB 2375 is incredibly disappointing and frustrating for so many Pennsylvanians.“Just weeks after Republicans and Democrats came together to pass fiscally responsible and comprehensive unemployment insurance reform that would provide benefits to 44,000 Pennsylvanians, the failure to move this critical legislation leaves the system’s staffing and operations in upheaval.“The failure to pass this bill now also means that the unemployment insurance system will be forced to lay off workers and close centers who process claims for the very people who are newly eligible to receive benefits because they are out of work and looking for a new job.“Though these impacts will be real and immediate, I will continue to provide workers with additional training opportunities and resources to help them get back to work.”Like Governor Tom Wolf on Facebook: Facebook.com/GovernorWolf November 16, 2016center_img Governor Wolf Statement on the Senate’s Failure to Act on HB 2375last_img read more

first_img After scoring 261 points and 33 tries in winning five successive games, the Lions were dealt a major setback as they lost their unbeaten record in the 14-12 loss. It was the first time they had lost to any provincial team since South African side Northern Transvaal beat them 16 years ago. The defeat came just four days before the first Test against Australia, when the Lions will set out on the road to a possible first series series triumph since 1997, and Leicester lock Parling said: “We spoke straight after the game, and we’ve got to pick ourselves up straightaway. We can’t mope around. This hurts, it hurts like hell, but you can’t start feeling sorry for yourself.” British and Irish Lions lock Geoff Parling admitted the first tour defeat Down Under “hurts like hell” after Warren Gatland’s side were edged out by the Brumbies at Canberra Stadium. Press Associationcenter_img He added: “There are some massive games around the corner. We can’t afford to have our heads down. That is not just with the game at the weekend in mind, but I am thinking as well about the environment and going back to the hotel. “If people mope around then that might spread. We just can’t afford to be like that. We have a massive game at the weekend and we need to pick ourselves up and get back on the horse. “You can’t feel sorry for yourself. You put a brave face on it and you move on. We need to face this and get on with it.” Parling went on as a second-half substitute and played a key part in underpinning a vastly-improved display after the Lions suffered a mauling during the first 40 minutes. But it was not enough to stave off a defeat, with the Brumbies securing a famous win through three Jesse Mogg penalties after centre Tevita Kuridrani posted an early try. “You’d rather we won and kept that run going. You would rather you did not need a reality check,” Parling added. “But if it has come, we’d rather it come tonight and not at the weekend. It’s very frustrating, and we certainly know we’ve got to be better. “We got a little bit edgy at the lineout, and we need to come back from this. I would love to be involved at the weekend. After you lose any game the thing you want to do is play again as quickly as possible.” last_img read more

first_imgIn the First Division Cabinteely host Athlone, Drogheda meet Waterford United and Shelbourne take on Cobh Ramblers. Cork City host Bohemians while Wexford Youths first top flight match is against Longford Town at Ferrycarraig park.In the night’s other games St Pats take on Galway United and Finn Harps first game back in the top division is at home to neighbours Derry City.All of those games kick off at 7.45last_img

first_img 26. Pittsburgh Steelers, 0-3 (25)With the Browns now playing well and the Ravens still formidable offensively, the Steelers are pretty much toast in the AFC North if they don’t come through with a win Monday night.27. Cincinnati Bengals, 0-4 (29)With the Browns now playing well and the Ravens still formidable offensively, the Bengals are pretty much toast in the AFC North if they don’t come through with a win Monday night.28. Arizona Cardinals, 0-3-1 (27)Kyler Murray continues his roller-coaster ride of running and passing, and the defense continues have similar ups and downs without Patrick Peterson. Kliff Kingsbury still has a lot of work ahead of him.29. Denver Broncos, 0-4 (28)Vic Fangio got his defense to produce sacks against the Jaguars, but the Broncos still are not making impact plays or getting takeaways, and their anemic offense can’t put away teams, either. This is uglier than expected for John Elway.30. Washington Redskins, 0-4 (30)Jay Gruden was forced into a quarterback switch to Dwayne Haskins. He probably won’t be the coach who will see through the struggling rookie’s development in Year 2. 16. Indianapolis Colts, 2-2 (11)The Colts take a tumble here after a bad home loss to the Raiders in which they simply made too many mistakes. That’s bad timing with a trip to Kansas City coming Sunday night.17. Los Angeles Chargers, 2-2 (17)The Chargers did what they needed to do in Miami, even with their slew of offensive injuries. There’s some optimism now on that side of the ball with Melvin Gordon set to play.18. Carolina Panthers, 2-2 (20)Kyle Allen had a rough go at Houston, but he is fortunate to have Christian McCaffrey there to run and catch him out of any jam. Ron Rivera’s impact on the defense has manifested itself over past two weeks.19. Houston Texans, 2-2 (13)What’s up with Bill O’Brien’s offense? He somehow has become too reliant on Deshaun Watson to run around and do everything, even when it’s not there. That doesn’t bode well for his job security.20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2-2 (24)The Buccaneers are a tricky team to figure out. They threw away games against the 49ers and Giants, and their defense stamped victories against the Panthers and Rams. The bottom line: Bruce Arians is starting to get through to Jameis Winston, and Todd Bowles has gotten through to defensive player of the year leader Shaq Barrett and the defense. The Jets got out of last place in the AFC East because they didn’t play. Now they get to play the Eagles, Cowboys and Patriots in consecutive weeks.32. Miami Dolphins, 0-4 (32)The Dolphins have been showing a little more offensive life with Josh Rosen, but their defense remains incapable of providing much resistance to anything, even a shorthanded Chargers passing game. Then there’s a baker dozen of teams that are even with 2-2 records. That’s more than 40 percent (13 of 32) of the league, including one entire division in which all teams are tied for both first and last place with that record.WATCH: The best of Week 4 in 60 secondsAfter a week full of upsets, here’s looking at the big shake-up behind New England and Kansas City in Sporting News’ NFL power rankings ahead of Week 5.NFL power rankings1. New England Patriots, 4-0 (previous ranking: 1)The Patriots couldn’t get much done offensively in Buffalo, but they showed their defensive dominance again with their takeaways. They made us remember they can win games with special teams, too.2. Kansas City Chiefs, 4-0 (2)The Chiefs don’t get style points for what they did on the road, either. But in a game where he didn’t have any touchdown passes, dazzling or otherwise, Patrick Mahomes still showed all of his playmaking and toughness in late comeback mode.3. New Orleans Saints, 3-1 (9)The Saints have marched to a couple consecutive victories without Drew Brees because their Patriots-like work on defense and special teams. They already have exceeded expectations in his absence, and Sean Payton is throwing in his name for coach of the year.4. Dallas Cowboys, 3-1 (3)They faced a hostile environment Sunday, and the Saints got revenge after last year’s low-scoring game between the teams. Let’s hope the Cowboys’ throwback to sudden offensive conservatism is an anomaly.5. Green Bay Packers, 3-1 (5)Their run defense continues to be a big concern, as is their rushing attack. But their pass defense and Aaron Rodgers will allow them to recover from a difficult game against a good Eagles team. 11. Baltimore Ravens, 2-2 (8)The Ravens’ defense, not Lamar Jackson and the offense, was the true concern going into the season given all of their lost personnel at linebacker. Cornerback injuries and Earl Thomas’ fade have made things worse. They will need to keep scoring a lot in order to win games; good thing they are capable.12. Minnesota Vikings, 2-2 (7)The Kirk Cousins-led passing game has entered a shell of disappointment, and it’s not entirely the QB’s fault. The team has become too conservative and reliant on Dalvin Cook’s running, but as Adam Thielen kind of said, teams still need to pass well in this passing league. That’s on Mike Zimmer.13. Buffalo Bills, 3-1 (10)The Bills did their best to win a battle of attrition against the Patriots, but their quarterbacks were not up to the task. Now Josh Allen might need to miss some time after that ugly shot to the head.14. Detroit Lions, 2-1-1 (14)The Lions were impressive in pushing the Chiefs at home, but they are still making critical mistakes as a forced running team. They could benefit from opening things up with Matthew Stafford.15. Cleveland Browns, 2-2 (19)Baker Mayfield had his best game yet because he didn’t force the ball downfield to Odell Beckham Jr. and others. Freddie Ktichens also turned things over to his running game and pass defense. To be totally trusted, though, they still need some consistency. 21. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-2 (21)Gardner Minshew is your early offensive rookie of the year favorite. What a fearless rookie passer, and as we suspected, his play was eventually going to help Leonard Fournette break out in a big way. It’s his team, not Jalen Ramsey’s team.22. Tennessee Titans, 2-2 (22)Marcus Mariota badly needed such a stellar first half in Atlanta. When he gets going like that, it becomes o easy for the Titans to win games with their defense and Derrick Henry closing things out. It just needs to happen more often for them to win the AFC South and for Mariota to stay with the team beyond 2019.23. New York Giants, 2-2 (23)Daniel Jones didn’t play as well in his second start, but he got some real help from Wayne Gallman doing his best Saquon Barkley impression. The Giants’ defense is not as lost as we thought, either.24. Oakland Raiders, 2-2 (26)The Raiders got it done with Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs playing well enough in Indy and with their defense starting to make plays. They will remain pesky on the road with Jon Gruden.25. Atlanta Falcons, 1-3 (18)Dan Quinn has to be feeling the heat, too, with the Panthers and Buccaneers looking much better than the Falcons in the NFC South. The defense remains messy, and the offense remains sloppy. 31. New York Jets, 0-3 (31) And then there were three. After four weeks of the 2019 NFL season, the so-called “quarter pole,” only three undefeated teams remain.The Patriots and Chiefs survived tough road games over the weekend to stay on their collision course for another AFC championship game meeting. The 49ers didn’t lose because they didn’t play anyone during their bye. 6. Los Angeles Rams, 3-1 (4)We’re not sure what to make of the Rams losing to the Buccaneers 55-40. In a week full of shockers, that was the strangest result. Los Angeles’ defense and running game issues are bigger than we thought, and Jared Goff is simply not playing well. The next game, in Seattle on Thursday night, is crucial.7. San Francisco 49ers, 3-0 (6)The 49ers have beaten one surprisingly good team but also two winless ones. They got a nice break in the division with the Rams losing, and if they can beat the Browns this week, we’ll know the only undefeated NFC team is for real.8. Philadelphia Eagles, 2-2 (16)The Eagles had a perfect weekend. They rose to the occasion with their two weaknesses, rushing offense and pass defense, to steal a win in Green Bay. They then sat back and watched the Cowboys lose, making the NFC East as tight as we expected it to be.9. Chicago Bears, 3-1 (15)They won’t have Mitchell Trubisky for a while, but their dominant defense under Chuck Pagano isn’t going anywhere. Frankly, the Bears were the one team that could afford to lose their starting quarterback and still play the same way.10. Seattle Seahawks, 3-1 (12)The Seahawks could have fallen into a desert trap in Arizona after stumbling at home against the Saints. Instead, they made a statement ahead of their Thursday night showdown against the Rams.last_img read more

first_imgARCATA >> Nearly 12 months ago, Cal State San Marcos announced its presence to the California Collegiate Athletic Association by claiming a win in its conference opener over the Humboldt State men’s basketball team.There was no repeat of history on Saturday night.Humboldt State was able to prevent San Marcos from spoiling its first CCAA game of the season for a second straight year, as the Jacks were able to close out the second half strong and claim an 89-78 win over the upstart Cougars at …last_img read more

first_img(Visited 628 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0 He was highly regarded in his day, but the beliefs of Comte de Buffon seem comical now.Janet Browne is delighted to see a new translation of a 1778 book by French philosopher Comte de Buffon (full name: George-Louis Leclerc, le comte de Buffon, hereafter Buffon). Browne is the historian of science who wrote an eye-opening but richly-sourced biography of Darwin we have referred to repeatedly (Charles Darwin: The Power of Place, Princeton 2002). Her portrayal of Darwin failed to sufficiently exalt the bearded Buddha to the pantheon of Greatest Scientist Ever as Darwin lovers expected. Instead, she exposed him as a schemer surrounded by accomplices (the X-Club) who used “audacious skulduggery” to get his ideas adopted and criticisms quashed (3 March 2008), to the point where Darwin schemed to manipulate his disciples to worship him as a god. But with access to the largest number of original documents, she had to tell the truth as a historian.Now, Browne is relishing the translation of Buffon’s Les Époques De La Nature — (Epochs of Nature, or the story of the Earth, first published in 1778). It had only been available in French till now. First, some background on Buffon (1707-1788), as described in Janet Browne’s review of the translation, published by Current Biology:George-Louis Leclerc, le comte de Buffon (1707 – 1788)Born into the landed bourgeoisie during the ancien régime, Buffon was a self-made, dynamic and cosmopolitan intellectual who became one of Europe’s best-known natural philosophers of the Enlightenment period, rapidly ascending to the directorship of the Jardin du Roi and Muséum d’Histoire Naturelle in Paris. He was elevated to the aristocracy in 1772 and died in 1788, just before the [French] revolution began. Had he lived longer, Buffon might have lost his head to the guillotine, although natural history was regarded as useful knowledge by the revolutionaries, and figures such as Buffon’s student Jean-Baptise Lamarck were allowed to remain active as professors at the Jardin. Nevertheless, Buffon’s death from natural causes marked the end of an era in Enlightenment science. Knowledge became a very different enterprise as the 19th century dawned.Browne is no ally of creationism, nor opponent of Darwinism. She just tries to be honest with the history of important figures in the rise of science. Creationists generally look down on Buffon for his atheism and his push to “naturalize” all science. He was one of the first to postulate long ages. Additionally, Buffon was one of the first proponents of “positivism,” teaching that the rise of materialistic science as the culmination of a series of evolutionary stages in the history of mankind, with science triumphing over religious superstition in the final stage. Would the French Revolution or the world wars of the 20th century have shaken his faith? We can only surmise.Buffon’s Epochs of Nature dealt with the Earth’s history from its origins in the planetary system to the modern era, arranged in seven successive epochs or time periods. In creating the volume, Buffon produced one of the most influential geological books in European science. Of course, there had been authoritative histories of the Earth beforehand and much careful research performed. Yet Buffon presented a thoroughly ‘enlightened’ and scientific view of the Earth that ran against the general Christian orthodoxy of the biblical story and proposed a vastly expanded timeframe. He is noted as one of the first scholars to introduce evidence for a directional, developmental history of the Earth and for laying important foundations for what would become an evolutionary point of view.As she indicates, Buffon influenced many scholars to come, who began to embrace long ages and evolutionary ideas. The myth of progress blossomed in the Victorian age, as increasing numbers of scientists, starting with the geologists, jettisoned the Bible and looked to their own “enlightened” reason to explain the world around them. This all culminated in Darwin’s Origin in 1859. By Darwin’s death in 1882, few were the scientists remaining who did not optimistically embrace the core of Buffon’s “positivism” that trusted in unaided human reason’s power to explain everything without reference to Divine revelation.Now that the table is set, let’s see what Buffon actually believed. Remember, he was highly regarded in his day. He was a scientific “expert.” His influence was profound; “one of the most widely read authors of the day — a rival to Montesquieu, Rousseau, and Voltaire.” But with the hindsight of history, who would not chuckle at what he taught in this book? Without meaning to, Browne presents him as somewhat of a buffoon by today’s standards. She kills him with kindness in her review that lauds his influence on the history of thought. Here are some tidbits gleaned from the review:“His account was founded on the idea of successive epochs, each following the other from the dawn of time and possessing different organisms to match changing atmospheric and geological conditions.”“his section explaining the metaphorical links between the bible and actual Earth history is a masterpiece of inventive yet logical thinking.“To Buffon, “everything proceeded along entirely natural pathways, one geological change generating the conditions for the next to emerge, a secular process of development set into place at the beginning by some abstract, supernatural force.““Yet his Earth was exceedingly old, older than anyone previously had suggested: some 75,000 years from the beginning, and almost ‘blasphemously old’ in the words of the authors.”“Buffon explained that the Earth was once an intensely hot cloud of matter that had spun off from the sun.““As the planet cooled, the waters emerged and receded, landmasses took shape, and the first living beings were spontaneously generated in the highest latitudes, as those were the areas first to cool.”“animals diversified according to environmental conditions and colonized the vacant landmasses, proceeding from north to south.”Modern scientists might try to defend these views as initial baby steps in a framework to explain phenomena by natural means. And yet most of what this “expert” said is no longer believed today, even by the secular evolutionary geologists and biologists who are his philosophical heirs. The Earth spun off the sun as a hot cloud? Water “emerged” somehow? Where did it come from? (This is a major problem for planetary science to this day.) Life emerged by spontaneous generation? It started at the highest latitudes? It moved from north to south? And all this happened without design in 75,000 years? “Inventive thinking” is the best euphemistic praise one could give to such ideas.The take-home lesson from Browne’s review is that today’s scientists can have little confidence that their own expertise will be looked on favorably 240 years from now. Their books might even by decaying on the shelves of the Eloi.Ha! Just imagine. The planet spun off the sun as a hot cloud! Life arose spontaneously! Water “emerged”! The environment created animals! Inventive thinking! Stuff happens! Hey, wait a minute; except for enlarging Buffon’s 75,000 years by almost three orders of magnitude, they still believe similar types of buffoonery today.last_img read more

first_imgThe county’s Department of Sport and Recreation will donate table tennis and pool tables to keep the pupils entertained off the pitch. The department’s 2010 legacy division has also committed to establishing a medical centre at the school, which will give pupils access to a psychologist. 14 January 2011 Fifa’s 2011 contribution will be used to upgrade the school’s gym, kitchen, dormitories, administration and coaches’ block, and fields. Extra computers with internet connectivity will be set up in the library to enhance the school’s academic support system. Money neededSafa says it will need a total of R80-million (around US$11.6-million) to fully transform the academy. “We will apply for Fifa’s R3-million grant every year until the school becomes a state-of-the-art facility,” Mazibuko said. Safa chief Leslie Sedibe said: “If you look at a number of players who went through the School of Excellence, they have done very well. They were well developed, and that is what we want to concentrate on.” The school – which offers grades eight to 12 – currently has 112 pupils, seven teachers and four coaches. Safa is hoping to increase the number of instructors to seven to improve the coach-player ratio. “In the past few years we had a problem where the school was no longer attracting quality youngsters, players who would do well for our junior national teams,” said Safa’s deputy president, Mandla Mazibuko. Safa plans to invite overseas football experts to hold workshops at the school to groom the budding stars and prepare them to represent South Africa at future Fifa World Cups. ‘Everything is back on track’But, said Mazibuko, there have been some recent improvements. “Everything is back on track at the school. We had trials all over the country in 2010. We are now going for quality again.”center_img Steven Pienaar Over the years, Safa’s school has produced some of the country’s best football players – one of whom is Steven Pienaar, who now plays for English Premier League club Everton (although a move to Tottenham Hotspur appears to be on the cards) and South Africa’s national team. Fifa has donated R3-million (US$437 655) towards reviving South Africa’s Football School of Excellence, which was once a breeding ground for top-quality players who went on to join the country’s national squad, Bafana Bafana. Fifa’s donation will come from its Goal Project funding initiative, which helps national football associations around the world establish centres, natural and artificial pitches, and schools that develop players of the Beautiful Game. The school was set up in Elandsfontein, east of Johannesburg in 1994, and is run by the South African Football Association (Safa). Safa said it hopes the proceeds from Fifa will help the school improve its finances and leadership so that it can once more produce top-quality football stars. First published by MediaClubSouthAfrica.com – get free high-resolution photos and professional feature articles from Brand South Africa’s media service.last_img read more

first_imgLOOK: Venues for 2019 SEA Games LATEST STORIES Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC Trending Articles PLAY LIST 00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:37Protesters burn down Iran consulate in Najaf01:47Panelo casts doubts on Robredo’s drug war ‘discoveries’01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games Read Next RELATED STORYKaya FC’s U-12 unit goes 2-0 in int’l youth football tiltPhoto courtesy of Paco Guerrero Catriona Gray spends Thanksgiving by preparing meals for people with illnesses McGregor vows fast finish against Mayweather MOST READ View commentscenter_img Photo courtesy of Paco GuerreroKaya Futbol Club (FC) Academy Under-12 has advanced to the last 32 stages of the Gothia Cup in Shenyang, China.Kaya FC, the last remaining Filipino team in the competition, topped their group after beating Dong Sheng Erxiao, 2-0, and amassing the perfect 9 points, scoring on 17 goals and giving up none.ADVERTISEMENT UPLB exempted from SEA Games class suspension Kaya would next faceTaiwanese team Xinzhu Academy Taipei.“It was a good experience playing teams from around the world. We are happy to represent the Philippines and show the world we can play good football,” team captain Enzo Courbet said in a statement.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSSEA Games: Philippines picks up 1st win in men’s water poloSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutout“We mustn’t be overconfident going into the knockout stages,” he added.Gothia Cup, which originated in Sweden in 1975, is considered the biggest youth football tournament in the world. Its staging in Asia, which is considered the second biggest in the world, was first held in Shenyang, China last year. IDL Man sworn in as lawyer by judge who sentenced him to prison as a teen 20 years ago WATCH: Streetboys show off slick dance moves in Vhong Navarro’s wedding Flags of SEA Games countries raised at Athletes Village Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. SEA Games in Calabarzon safe, secure – Solcom chieflast_img read more

Warren Buffett has a great investment track record. So perhaps it’s no accident that he declined to offer $1 billion for correctly predicting the outcome of all World Cup knockout stage games, as he did for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament games.The odds of winning Buffett’s NCAA challenge were about one in 7.4 billion, assuming you chose the favorite in each game as selected by FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA model. But the odds of correctly filling out a 16-team knockout tournament such as the World Cup are much shorter.In fact, though there have been some thrilling matches in the knockout stage so far — six of 12 have gone to extra time and only two were decided by more than one goal — the favorite has advanced every time (at least as according to the FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup predictions).Here is the breakdown so far. The following table lists the win probability for the FiveThirtyEight favorite as of the day of the match, along with the cumulative probability of the model having called all knockout stages correctly up to that point in time.For instance, the probability of correctly identifying the winners in each of the first four knockout matches — Brazil over Chile, Colombia over Uruguay, the Netherlands over Mexico and Costa Rica over Greece — was about 23 percent, or one chance in 4.3. And the chance of going 12 for 12, as the FiveThirtyEight favorites have done so far, is just one in 75.It’s an upset, in other words, when all the favorites prevail. On average, we’d have expected three or four upsets through this point in the knockout round.Of course, there are four matches left — counting the World Cup’s third-place playoff between the two semifinal losers. According to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, Brazil is favored over Germany on Tuesday (even after accounting for Neymar’s injury) and Argentina is slightly favored over the Netherlands on Wednesday. To complete a perfect knockout bracket, Germany would then need to beat the Netherlands in the consolation game while Brazil prevailed over Argentina in the final.All of the remaining matches look pretty close, so the FiveThirtyEight forecasts are likely to fail at some stage. If the model gets the matches right, however, it will have made good on a 1-in-553 chance of calling all 16 knockout stage winners correctly.Incidentally, this isn’t the huge success for the FiveThirtyEight model that it might seem. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts are probabilistic. Teams listed as 75 percent favorites are supposed to win about 75 percent of the time over the long run — not much less than that but also not any more often. There are supposed to be some upsets. If 75 percent favorites are winning 100 percent of the time over the long run instead, that means the forecasts are miscalibrated and overestimating the chances for the underdogs.In this case, the success of the favorites does seem to be mostly a matter of luck. Three games have gone to a penalty shootout so far — pre-match favorites might have a slight edge in those but not much of one. Mexico, meanwhile, was a few minutes away from defeating the Netherlands, and the U.S. was a few inches away from beating Belgium.The best way to test probabilistic forecasts is to check their calibration and to compare them against alternative probabilistic estimates. For example, if your model says that the U.S. has a 40 percent chance of beating Belgium and the consensus betting line gives the U.S. just a 25 percent chance instead, you should bet on the Americans — even though you expect Belgium to win most of the time. So far, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts have done well against consensus betting lines when used in this fashion — although that could reflect good luck, too. read more